Extraordinary Genius - Chapter 272 – Oil Prices plunged
Just when Feng Xingtai was preparing for the Lunar New Year’s celebration, Feng Yu returned to Bing City and he was on the phone with He Zhaoji. He was reporting the international oil and London gold prices.
On January 17, the price of oil rose by 1 USD before it starts to fall. From that day onwards, oil prices fell almost every day. It had been 10 days, and oil prices had dropped from 207 USD to 19 USD. The day where oil prices plunged the most was 17th January. It fell from 27 USD to 23 USD. The next day, it fell to less than 20 USD.
After that, oil prices started to have small fluctuations, but it did not rise. The prices still kept falling bit by bit every day.
He Zhaoji was in awe of Feng Yu’s analysis of the market. Even when there was a war going on, Feng Yu still dare to short oil prices, and his predictions again came true. But He Zhaoji was worried that Feng Yu had set the selling price too low at 18 USD. If he had set 20 USD, he would have settled the future contract and made lots of profits.
Feng Yu only told He Zhaoji to wait patiently. Although there were fluctuations, the oil prices will not rise. A few days later, it will fall to 18 USD, and the future contract will automatically be settled.
At the same time, all members of the Fu family gathered at Fu Rongqi’s house to discuss if they should believe Feng Yu’s claim of oil prices will fall to below 18 USD.
If they had entered the market when the oil prices were above 20 USD, they would have made more than double their investments with high leverage, even when the price difference was 2 USD.
But they did not believe Feng Yu initially. If they had followed Feng Yu and short the oil at 27 USD, they would have made 6 times their investment when oil prices fell to 18 USD!
Feng Yu had invested a few hundred million USD and had still use high leverage. This meant that Feng Yu would have made at least 2 billion USD?
The 3 younger brothers were blaming their eldest brother, Fu Rongqi. If Fu Rongqi had followed Feng Yu, they would do the same thing too. Even if they invested 100 million HKD, they would have returns of 500 to 600 million HKD. If they invested more, their yields would be even higher.
Fu Rongqi was furious. Look at the whole of Hong Kong. Who had shorted oil? How many people in the whole world had shorted oil? Even if I followed Feng Yu and short oil, would I dare to use high leverage? Would I dare to set such a low price? All of you also thought that oil prices would rise when there was a war. Who would expect it to fall?
All of you knew how much Feng Yu had invested and why didn’t you invest?
Fu Rongqi scolded his younger brothers, and they kept quiet. They only dared to grumble. If the Fu family were not headed by their eldest brother, they would also not be successful.
In fact, even if Fu Rongqi had asked them to short oil that day, they would also not do it. They knew it was an opportunity, but they don’t have the guts to do so.
Fu Rongqi was also feeling uncomfortable in his heart. On 16th January, oil prices were still rising, and he thought that Feng Yu’s analysis was wrong. However, the next day, oil prices plunged. Who would have thought of that?
After that, oil prices plummeted and never recover. Before he could react and short the oil prices, it was too late.
Feng Yu had said that oil prices will reach about 18 USD and there was only about 2 USD price difference. The returns were too low. Unless he dares to use high leverage like Feng Yu, but the risk was too high.
These few years, Fu Rongqi had seen many successful tycoons slowly disappearing from the limelight. Most of them were because they had lost their fortune when they speculate on the financial market.
Investing was not scary. Even there was a risk of losing, but the risks could be controlled through careful analysis of the market. But speculation was the same as gambling. The returns were high, but the risks were also high. If one was not careful, he could lose every single cent.
Look at Fu Rongjing. He had lost 400 million in Forex market within a short period of time. He managed to recover most of his losses because of Feng Yu’s tips on buying London gold futures.
Fu Rongjing had learned his lesson. After he got back most of his losses, he immediately clears his debts and did not bet on oil prices falling.
Fu Rongqi does not intend to invest in oil. The returns were not attractive enough, and there was still a high risk. He rather invests in the gold market. The fluctuations in the gold market were volatile, and gold prices fell as what Feng Yu claimed. It was not 360 USD/ounce. It was not far from Feng Yu’s prediction of 355 USD/ounce.
The Fu brothers had made quite a lot from following Feng Yu to short gold prices. This time, Fu Rongqi called everyone together was to ask them to invest in the gold market. He decided to buy gold at 355 USD/ounce, and he felt that it was quite safe. However, it was still up to them to determine if they wanted to invest.
The 3 younger brothers looked at each other, and all of them decided to invest a sum of money. Although they do not believe Feng Yu, who claims that gold prices will rise sharply, their eldest brother’s team of experts were sure of it. They could not predict how high the prices would reach, but they trust the experts.
Anyway, they will be buying in the gold, and they could sell it anytime. They will not be using high leverage, and they would still make profits.
Fu Rongqi had some hesitations. Should he hedge against the gold and lower his risks? In the past, every time he invests in futures, he would do hedging.
Hedging was commonly used by companies and big players. Although the returns will be lower, there will be lesser risks.
Hedging would mean he had to give up the chance to use 100 million to earn 1 billion, but at the same time, it would prevent 1 billion to turn into 100 million or even less. Fu Rongqi could use this method and invest 1 billion to get returns of 100 million.
Fu Rongqi was thinking about Feng Yu’s expression when he shorts oil. He was so confident and decisive. He was so sure that he would win.
Young men had the drive. But when they reached Fu Rongqi’s age, they would tend to avoid taking high risks, even if the returns were high.
Fu Rongqi wanted to do some hedging to lower the risk. He believed that once gold prices fell to 355 USD, it will rebound. However, he was not confident that gold would reach more than 400 USD as Feng Yu claims. No one from his team dares to make such claims.
A few days later, oil prices fell below 18 USD, and Fu Rongqi was convinced of Feng Yu’s abilities.
Since Feng Yu was so accurate with the oil prices, then his prediction on the gold prices should also be correct. This time Fu Rongqi decided to invest without hedging. He was going to gamble it!